Polling Frenzy: Here are the Numbers

Friday, October 22, 2004

The first thing I did this morning was check for any new national poll results. It’s what I’ve been doing every morning for a few weeks, to get a sense of whether there is any movement. Where are things trending? I know that the next president will be determined in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, or perhaps where the political season begins, in Iowa. But the state preferences and trends do seem to follow the national ones, so they’re worth watching, too.

The partisan talking heads pick a few polls each day on which to base their comments, and most commentators have staked themselves to the position that the polls are “all over the place,” essentially canceling each other out.

Well, let’s dip our toe into the polling pool and see what it says today. We’ll check back the next two Fridays:

Latest as of Oct. 22

National

Fox News
Bush 49 Kerry 42

Wash Post/ABC
Bush 51 Kerry 45

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush 52 Kerry 44

Time
Bush 48 Kerry 46

Newsweek
Bush 50 Kerry 45

CBS News
Bush 47 Kerry 45

Zogby
Bush 46 Kerry 45

Pew Research Center
Bush 47 Kerry 47

Associated Press/IPSOS
Bush 46 Kerry 49


Key Battleground States

Penn. (NBC/Knight Ridder)
Bush 45 Kerry 46

Iowa (NBC/Knight Ridder)
Bush 49 Kerry 43

Ohio (Gallup)
Bush 47 Kerry 48

Florida (Mason Dixon)
Bush 48 Kerry 45

Michigan (Detroit News)
Bush 47 Kerry 43

Wisconsin (Gallup)
Bush 49 Kerry 46

--James Jewell